馬龍

《國際產業》嚇爆！油價又狂殺 拜登恐是兇手之一

時報資訊

2020年11月7日 上午11:12

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2 則留言

【時報-台北電】新冠肺炎疫情持續惡化，部分國家再祭出封鎖措施，市場擔心經濟放緩恐重挫原油需求，加上拜登勝選機率大增不利油市，國際油價繼周四下跌近1%後，周五（6日）再度重挫逾4%，每桶來到37.14美元。

德國商銀分析師Eugen Weinberg最新報告指出，由於歐美各國每日新增病例和死亡人數不斷攀升，二波疫情讓石油市場前景蒙上陰影，目前社交限制和出國旅遊行為長期改變，可能導致石油機構下調能源市場的需求預期。

稍早美國大選的樂觀氛圍，帶動美股、原油同步勁揚，但隨著開票進入尾聲，提倡發展再生能源的民主黨拜登勝出機率升高，對油市造成壓力外；Weinberg認為，拜登政府與伊朗和解的可能性大增，投資人擔憂更多原油湧向市場。

全球新冠疫情持續延燒，據美國約翰霍普金斯大學 (Johns Hopkins University)統計顯示，全球確診人數飆破4911萬例，死亡人數超過123萬例。周四，美國新增確診121888例，創下單日歷史新高，累計確診人數超過966萬例，累計死亡突破23.5萬人。

本周市場關注美國總統大選、OPEC（石油輸出國組織）打算進一步延長減產時間、美國原油庫存下降、新冠病例增加的歐美各國祭出封鎖引發石油需求下滑。

本周國際油價先跳後蹲，前三天上漲，下半周關注焦點轉向疫情和美國大選，油價連續兩天下跌。周五紐約12月期油暴跌1.65美元（或4.25%），每桶收在37.14美元，全周累計仍大漲約3.77%；布蘭特1月期油重挫1.48美元（或3.61%），每桶收在39.45美元。(新聞來源：中時新聞網 吳美觀)

https://tw.stock.yahoo.com/news/%E5%9C%8B%E9%9A%9B%E7%94%A2%E6%A5%AD-%E5%9A%87%E7%88%86-%E6%B2%B9%E5%83%B9%E5%8F%88%E7%8B%82%E6%AE%BA-%E6%8B%9C%E7%99%BB%E6%81%90%E6%98%AF%E5%85%87%E6%89%8B%E4%B9%8B-031247065.html

馬龍

倒數4個交易日 元大S&原油正2將下市

2020/11/08 05:30   

元大S&原油正2即將下市。（資料照）

〔記者張慧雯／台北報導〕倒數最後四個交易日！元大S&原油正2ETF預計十一月十三日正式下市，十一月十二日為最後上市交易日，投資人要記得本週只剩四個交易日，否則可能等到十二月八日才能領回款項。

上週元大S&原油正2ETF受益人尚有三萬人，而該基金自十一月六日開始處理基金庫存部位，直至部位全數出清完畢，且基金也不再追蹤S&原油指數，淨值表現恐與追蹤指數走勢出現明顯差異；此外，上週元大S&原油正2ETF一度還出現溢價，但上週五（六日）為止，收盤價下跌二．九％，只剩○．六七元，已從溢價轉為折價。

元大投信強調，依元大原油正二期貨信託契約第十六條第一項第五款規定，信託契約終止前一個月，得不受整體曝險部位儘可能貼近基金淨資產價值二○○％及投資於指數成分原油期貨契約價值不得低於本基金淨資產價值一○○％限制。

由於元大S&原油正2ETF上市交易日只剩最後四天，元大投信也提醒，投資人若不願意走清算流程，建議把握最後可以於集中市場賣出的機會。

而元大S&原油正2ETF十三日下市後，再依清算基準日的淨值乘上投資人持有的受益權單位數，計算應返還投資人的金額，預計在十二月八日以匯款方式返還投資人。

https://ec.ltn.com.tw/article/paper/1411311

馬龍

《油價》擔憂石油需求受創 NYMEX原油下跌4.3%

Moneydj理財網

2020年11月9日 上午7:11

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MoneyDJ新聞 2020-11-09 07:11:54 記者 黃文章 報導

紐約商業交易所（NYMEX）12月原油期貨11月6日收盤下跌1.65美元或4.3%成為每桶37.14美元，因全球疫情嚴重或再重創石油需求的影響，歐洲ICE期貨交易所（ICE Futures Europe）近月布蘭特原油下跌1.48美元或3.6%成為每桶39.45美元。11月6日，全球新冠肺炎單日確診人數以及單日死亡人數都再創新高，分別超過62萬人與9,200人。全球新冠肺炎感染人數累計已經超過五千萬大關，美國則超過一千萬人。上週，NYMEX原油上漲3.8%，布蘭特原油上漲5.3%。

全球第三大油田服務公司貝克休斯（Baker Hughes Inc.）公佈，截至11月6日，美國石油與天然氣探勘井數量較前週增加4座至300座，為連續第8週增加。其中，主要用於頁岩油氣開採的水平探勘井數量較前週增加5座至259座。探勘活動的增減會反映未來的石油產量，通常有3-6個月的落差，貝克休斯統計的探勘井是指為開發以及探勘新油氣儲藏所設的鑽井（鑽機）數量。

貝克休斯的數據顯示，截至11月6日，美國石油探勘井數量較前週增加5座至226座，為連續第7週增加，天然氣探勘井數量較前週減少1座至71座。與去年同期相比，美國石油探勘井數量減少458座，天然氣探勘井數量減少59座，水平探勘井數量年減451座。根據美國能源部週度預測數據，截至10月30日當週，美國原油日均產量較前週減少60萬桶至1,050萬桶，較3月的歷史高峰減少160萬桶。

在美國最大產油州德州，油氣探勘井數量較前週增加6座至139座，緊鄰德州上方的奧克拉荷馬州油氣探勘井數量較前週減少1座至13座，新墨西哥州油氣探勘井數量較前週增加3座至50座，路易斯安那州油氣探勘井數量較前週持平為37座，北達科他州油氣探勘井數量較前週持平為11座。最大頁岩油產地、盤據西德州與新墨西哥州東南部的二疊紀盆地石油探勘井數量較前週增加5座至147座。

美國能源部11月5日公佈的每週天然氣庫存數據顯示，截至10月30日，美國天然氣庫存較前週減少360億立方英尺至3.919兆立方英尺，相比過去五年的同期平均值為增加520億立方英尺，去年同期為增加490億立方英尺，分析師的預估為減少280億立方英尺。當週美國天然氣庫存較去年同期增加5.4%，較五年同期平均值增加5.4%。美國能源部此前預估，至10月底天然氣庫存將達到4兆立方英尺，較過去五年的平均值高出6%。

根據IHS Markit的數據，10月29日至11月4日的一週期間，美國天然氣日均供應量較前週增加1.9%，天然氣產量較前週增加1.5%；來自加拿大的天然氣日均進口量較前週增加8.0%，對墨西哥的管道天然氣出口較前週減少6.9%。當週美國天然氣日消費量較前週增加1.4%至730億立方英尺，其中發電部門的天然氣日消費量較前週減少12.5%至252億立方英尺，工業消費量較前週增加1.3%至229億立方英尺，商業/住宅的天然氣消費量較前週增加20%至249億立方英尺。

＊編者按：本文僅供參考之用，並不構成要約、招攬或邀請、誘使、任何不論種類或形式之申述或訂立任何建議及推薦，讀者務請運用個人獨立思考能力，自行作出投資決定，如因相關建議招致損失，概與《精實財經媒體》、編者及作者無涉。

https://tw.stock.yahoo.com/news/%E6%B2%B9%E5%83%B9-%E6%93%94%E6%86%82%E7%9F%B3%E6%B2%B9%E9%9C%80%E6%B1%82%E5%8F%97%E5%89%B5-nymex%E5%8E%9F%E6%B2%B9%E4%B8%8B%E8%B7%8C4-3-231100391.html

馬龍

雙重利空挫油價 汽油降5角、柴油4角

2020/11/02 05:30   

（資料照）

〔記者高嘉和／台北報導〕受到歐美地區新冠病毒肺炎疫情嚴峻、美國新紓困案陷入僵局等因素影響，國際油價下跌。台灣中油自今日凌晨零時起汽、柴油價格每公升各調降五角及四角；台塑石化也自今日凌晨一時開始，調降汽油批售價格每公升五角、柴油批售價格每公升四角。

調整後的中油各式油品參考零售價格分別為︰九二無鉛汽油每公升二十一．五元、九五無鉛汽油每公升二十三元、九八無鉛汽油每公升二十五元、超級柴油每公升十八．九元。

台灣中油昨也宣布十一月氣價，家庭用液化石油氣（桶裝瓦斯）、工業用丙烷、丁烷、混合丙丁烷每公斤各調漲一．五元，車用液化石油氣每公升調漲八角，若依二十公斤桶裝瓦斯計算，每桶調漲三十元；天然氣價格則平均調漲二．二八元，依公式每立方公尺調漲一．六角，以家庭用戶每月平均用量約三十至四十五立方公尺計算，每月增加約四．八至七．二元。

台灣中油說，十一月液化石油氣依公式每公斤應調漲二．三元，為配合政府政策及減輕民眾負擔，每公斤僅調漲一．五元，未調足部分由中油暫時吸收。

https://ec.ltn.com.tw/article/paper/1409995

馬龍

《油價》庫存以及產量增長 NYMEX原油大跌5.5%

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2020年10月29日 上午7:23

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MoneyDJ新聞 2020-10-29 07:23:15 記者 黃文章 報導

紐約商業交易所（NYMEX）12月原油期貨10月28日收盤下跌2.18美元或5.5%成為每桶37.39美元，因美歐兩地疫情嚴峻、美國大選前刺激措施希望渺茫推動美元上漲，以及上週美國原油庫存增長高於預期、原油產量增長創紀錄的影響。歐洲ICE期貨交易所（ICE Futures Europe）近月布蘭特原油下跌2.08美元或5%成為每桶39.12美元。

美國能源部10月28日公佈的數據顯示，截至10月23日，美國商業原油庫存較前週增加430萬桶至4.924億桶，路透社調查的分析師預估為增加120萬桶；汽油庫存減少90萬桶至2.261億桶，包括柴油在內的蒸餾油庫存減少450萬桶至1.562億桶。美國上週原油日產量則是大增120萬桶至1,110萬桶，創下3個月來的新高，主要由於颶風過後生產恢復的影響。

美國內政部安全與環境執法局（BSEE）10月28日報告表示，受到熱帶暴風Zeta來襲的影響，美國墨西哥灣的原油日產能關閉66.6%或1,231,305桶/日，天然氣日產能關閉44.5%或12.05億立方英尺/日。墨西哥灣總數643座的人工操作生產平台當中，已經有228座撤離人員，或為35.5%。根據美國能源部數據，墨西哥灣海上原油生產平台產能約佔美國原油總產量的16%、佔天然氣總產量的2.4%，美國也有超過45%的煉油產能和51%的天然氣加工產能分布在墨西哥灣地區。

英國石油公司（BP p.l.c. Group）10月27日發布財報表示，2020年第三季，扣除一次性項目和庫存變動的重置成本獲利（該公司所定義的淨利）為1億美元，相比前季為虧損67億美元，去年同期為獲利23億美元。該公司表示，第三季相比前季能夠轉虧為盈，主要是由於石油天然氣價格與需求回升的影響。根據路孚特（Refinitiv）的調查，分析師原先預期該公司第三季將虧損3.47億美元。

英國石油公司財務長Murray Auchincloss表示，經歷了今年上半年全球經濟與石油需求的大幅下滑之後，已經能夠看到全球經濟復甦的初期訊號，各國針對疫情的限制措施也縮小至較為地區性。該公司表示，今年第三季，布蘭特原油平均價格為每桶43美元，較第二季的均價大幅上漲45%。不過，Auchincloss也指出，近期美歐兩地的疫情又再加重，令需求前景又增添了不確定性。

挪威雷斯塔能源顧問公司（Rystad Energy）報告表示，美國的石油探勘生產公司已經對其2021年預期產量的41%進行避險操作，平均價格約為西德州原油期貨合約的每桶42美元。多數公司的避險操作涵蓋預期產量的20%-60%，只有三家公司的避險操作合約量低於預期產量的20%。

＊編者按：本文僅供參考之用，並不構成要約、招攬或邀請、誘使、任何不論種類或形式之申述或訂立任何建議及推薦，讀者務請運用個人獨立思考能力，自行作出投資決定，如因相關建議招致損失，概與《精實財經媒體》、編者及作者無涉。 資料來源-MoneyDJ理財網

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鉅亨網記者陳蕙綾 台北

2020年10月29日 下午4:45

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留言

原油正 2 ETF(00672L-TW) 距離下市僅剩倒數不到半個月，但是近期原油走跌，竟然還有投資人買進想搶反彈，截至上周五仍有 3.4 萬名投資人。元大投信表示，近期原油進入傳統淡季，由歷史經驗來看淡季下跌機率高，且新冠肺炎疫情再次升溫，再加上美國總統大選結果難料，原油後市不確定性極高，建議投資人應特別留意相關交易風險。元大 S& 原油正 2 ETF(00672L-TW) 距離下市僅剩倒數不到半個月，但是近期原油走跌，竟然還有投資人買進想搶反彈，截至上周五仍有 3.4 萬名投資人。元大投信表示，近期原油進入傳統淡季，由歷史經驗來看淡季下跌機率高，且新冠肺炎疫情再次升溫，再加上美國總統大選結果難料，原油後市不確定性極高，建議投資人應特別留意相關交易風險。

元大投信表示，元大原油正 2 已於 10 月 12 日接獲證交所同意，將於 11 月 13 日正式下市，11 月 12 日為該基金的集中市場最後交易日，剩餘交易日有限。近期原油行情走跌，許多投資人仍持續買進元大原油正 2 想要搶賺可能的反彈漲幅，但元大投信提醒投資人，傳統 9 月底到 12 月中為原油淡季，依據 Bloomberg 統計資料，自 1995 年至 2019 年歷史資料顯示，這段期間元大原油正 2 追蹤之標普高盛原油 ER 指數下跌機率為 52%，平均跌幅為 4.84%，投資人應多加注意。

元大投信進一步提醒，除此之外，近期新冠肺炎疫情亦有升溫之跡象，美國每日確診人數不斷升高，法國也在考慮是否重啟封城，若秋冬新冠肺炎疫情再度延燒，影響原油需求，原油期貨不排除重演第一季崩跌的可能，且近期美國總統大選亦進入白熱化競爭，全球金融市場後勢不確定性極高，投資人應特別留意相關交易風險。

元大投信也特別指出，近期元大原油正 2 仍有溢價情形發生，若投資人要在最後可交易日期間交易，務必注意盤中基金折溢價狀況。

此外，依照元大原油正 2 期貨信託契約的規定，信託契約終止前的一個月基金的投資部位是不受最低須持有指數成分的原油期貨契約 100% 及曝險部位 200% 的限制，因此元大投信將在基金清算基準日（即 11 月 24 日）之前，陸續處分元大原油正 2 基金庫存部位，直至部位全部出清完畢，由於部位出清也會影響基金報酬表現，提醒投資人應特別注意元大投信後續的相關重訊與公告。

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馬龍

國際油價走跌 下週汽油估降0.2元

中央社

2020年10月29日 下午12:24

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留言

（中央社記者楊舒晴台北2020年10月29日電）國際油價下跌，根據中油浮動油價公式，預估11月2日凌晨零時起，汽油每公升調降0.2元，柴油每公升調降0.3元，車主加油可再等等。

武漢肺炎（COVID-19，2019冠狀病毒疾病）疫情嚴峻，市場憂心新一波病例會妨礙全球經濟復甦步調，再加上利比亞原油產出增加超出預期、美國原油庫存增加等因素，使國際油價下跌。

28日紐約與倫敦原油期貨都出現大約7週以來單日最大跌幅，紐約市場西德州中級原油12月交割價下跌2.18美元，來到每桶37.39美元，倫敦市場北海布倫特原油12月交割價下跌2.08美元，來到每桶39.12美元。

依浮動油價調整機制作業原則，以及不考量亞鄰競爭國最低價及平穩措施的條件下，預估下週汽油及柴油零售價格每公升約各下跌0.2元及0.3元。

如依預估，92無鉛汽油零售價每公升21.8元、95無鉛汽油每公升23.3元、98無鉛汽油每公升25.3元、超級柴油每公升19元，實際價格依中油11月1日公布為準。

根據中油官網，累算至10月28日的7D3B（70%杜拜30%北海布倫特）週均價為39.44美元，較上週41.49下跌2.05美元。新台幣兌美元匯率28.893元，較上週28.919元升值0.026元。

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馬龍

《國際油價》美紓困案新進展 美油期貨反彈1.5%

時報資訊

2020年10月21日 上午9:59

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留言

【時報記者王聖為綜合報導】美紓困案新進展，周二美國原油期貨反彈1.5%；據美國石油協會(API)所公布的最新數據指出，截至10月16日當周，美國原油庫存意外增加58.4萬桶，與分析師原先預期的減少100萬桶有所差距。

但據了解，美國參議院將對一項5000億美元的疫情紓困法案進行投票，外界預期若順利通過，將有助於緩解受新冠疫情打擊的企業，眾議院議長裴洛西(Nancy Pelosi)對於兩黨取得共識抱持樂觀態度，並看好能在總統大選前順利推出紓困措施，激勵市場信心；其中美國原油漲幅1.5%，倫敦原油漲幅1.3%。

美國NYMEX-11月輕質原油期貨上漲0.63美元，報每桶41.46美元；11月熱燃油漲0.01美元，報每加侖1.17美元；11月RBOB汽油漲0.03美元，報每加侖1.19美元；倫敦ICE-12月布蘭特原油期貨上漲0.54美元，報每桶43.16美元。(商品行情網)

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馬龍

國際油價走揚 下週汽柴油估各漲1角及4角

中央社

21k 人追蹤

追蹤

The Central News Agency 中央通訊社

2020年10月15日 下午2:13

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留言

（中央社記者楊舒晴台北15日電）本週國際油價上漲，根據中油浮動油價公式，預估19日凌晨零時起，汽油每公升可能調漲0.1元，柴油每公升可能調漲0.4元。

14日紐約市場西德州中級原油11月交割價上漲84美分，來到每桶41.04美元，倫敦市場北海布倫特原油12月交割價上漲87美分，來到每桶43.32美元。

依浮動油價調整機制作業原則，以及不考量亞鄰競爭國最低價及平穩措施的條件下，預估下週汽油及柴油零售價格每公升約各上漲新台幣0.1元及0.4元。

如依預估，92無鉛汽油零售價每公升22.1元、95無鉛汽油每公升23.6元、98無鉛汽油每公升25.6元、超級柴油每公升19.6元，實際價格依中油18日公布為準。

根據中油官網，累算至10月14日的7D3B（70%杜拜30%北海布倫特）週均價為41.23美元，較上週40.92上漲0.31美元。新台幣兌美元匯率28.927元，較上週28.978元升值0.051元。（編輯：蘇志宗）1091015

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馬龍

美能源業淪疫情重災戶 裁員逾10萬人

CTWANT

18.2k 人追蹤

追蹤

工商時報鍾志恆

2020年10月11日 上午10:03

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33 則留言

國際油價周五大漲逾5%，逼近4字頭，創下3個月來新高。（圖/達志影像/shutterstock）

更多影片

國際油價周五大漲逾5%，逼近4字頭，創下3個月來新高。（圖/達志影像/shutterstock）

新冠肺炎疫情重創能源需求和油價，使美國能源業遭到前所未見的打擊而裁員逾10萬人，大部分被裁掉的職位可能在2021年底前無法恢復。

德勤（Deloitte）指出，3月到8月間美國石油、天然氣和化學等產業裁撤約10.7萬份工作，裁員速度是美國能源業歷來最嚴重。其中未包含放無薪假的人數。

儘管德勤預估美國油價在明年底前會維持在每桶45美元水準，但疫情期間被裁撤掉的職務，高達七成在2021年底前不會恢復。如此大規模裁員也讓外界不再視能源業為工作穩定的產業，從而降低勞工投入意願。

能源業的興衰跟景氣循環有很大關係，但其在疫情期間大裁員的原因之一，是受油價漲跌影響程度較過去嚴重。

德勤發現美國油價每桶漲跌1美元，就可能影響到能源業上游和油田服務業約3,000個工作職務的去留，較1990年代潛在影響1,500個職務的情況嚴重。這表示現在油價變化對業界的影響力是過去兩倍。

專家認為會出現這情況跟頁岩油崛起有關。頁岩油開採技術革新讓美國在2012年即成為全球最大石油與天然氣產國。

但一個頁岩油田的開採枯竭期較傳統油田短很多，因此頁岩油產量讓油價漲跌更波動，從而更容易影響油商做出裁員或增聘決定。

德勤認為能源業大裁員造成的風險，是大量人才與技術工人轉到其他更有希望的產業，讓油商以後更難找到符合要求的技術工人。

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